IEA Wind TCP

How do specific and novel technology innovations and operational trends impact the economics of wind energy?

This collaborative research will address these knowledge gaps through two approaches. First, we will develop and apply engineering cost models to assess the LCOE impacts of a range of wind technology, plant design, and operational innovations that were revealed in the Work Package 1 elicitation described above. Second, we will conduct comparative case studies (across multiple regions and grid-system archetypes) to analytically assess available solutions to increase the value of wind energy. Potential analysis questions that will be explored in this Work Package are the cost and value impact of increased turbine rating, hybrid plants of fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines, shared export cable and offshore substations, and the effect of condition monitoring systems on operations and maintenance costs.

How does uncertainty impact wind energy economics and financing?

In this work package, we plan to complement traditional methods for characterizing costs and work to bridge this research gap through a three-fold approach. First, we determine how project uncertainties and risks are accounted for in practice (e.g., as part of cost contingencies, the cost of capital, or government support regimes) by analyzing the results from an ongoing IEA Wind Task 26 and IRENA expert elicitation on wind energy financing costs. Second, we quantify the impact of key uncertainties and risks (including revenue uncertainty) by illustrating their effect on LCOE and the cost of capital for wind energy assets. Third, we develop a model for scenario-based forecasting of wind energy financing costs.

What data and methods best inform our understanding of current and historical wind energy economics?

The work within this research category focuses on three primary themes: annual data updates, evaluation of LCOE methods, and methods validation. This Work Package will span onshore and offshore wind applications. The annual data updates will include technology, cost, and performance data to be collected and reported over the 4-year research phase by each of the Task participants. The data will be used as inputs to evaluate country-specific LCOEs using various calculation methodologies. The comparison is intended to illustrate the fallacies and complexities of different LCOE calculation methods and to integrate new wind applications and holistic considerations.

How does transmission infrastructure and hydrogen affect the cost and value of offshore wind energy?

Exploring the impact of combined hydrogen and transmission infrastructure development on the cost and value of wind energy is a new addition to the Task and fills an important gap in academic and applied research. Because of the novelty of this research field, we will utilize a scenario approach that explores the relative impact of different hydrogen and transmission configurations. This research collaboration will build on existing cost and value modeling tools among the participating members for technical-economic assessment. By amending considerations for hydrogen use under different transmission and market configurations, new quantitative insights will be generated to inform potential tradeoffs for policymakers and planners. We expect to be able to present comparable findings on the cost and value impact of hydrogen infrastructure choices across participating countries.

How does the wind energy supply chain evolve and change in established and future markets?

This research collaboration will identify key enabling supply chain technologies and map them to markets where needs for those technologies may arise. We will also examine the potential impact on total wind energy costs that these infrastructure investments could have. In a possible subsequent step, we may estimate the future value (e.g., expected jobs, sales volume) created within a region considering the expected onshore and offshore wind capacities by 2030 and 2050. For a given region we may consider the following approach: First, we analyze current wind deployment and respective turbine models in use. Second, we identify the subcomponents (a blade, bearings, pitch system, generator, support structure, etc.) of the turbine models and their manufacturing location, building on data published by certification bodies and others. Third, we use the Task’s knowledge of costs (capital expenditure shares at the component level) to identify the value created within a region or through a specific original equipment manufacturer. As an optional final step, we might expand to a forward-looking perspective, providing estimates on future (e.g., 2030/2050) regional value creation and assembly needs.