About Task 51
Forecasting for the Weather Driven Energy System -- Improving the value of renewable energy forecasts to the wind industry
The Task 51, under the IEA Implementing Agreement for Co-operation in the Research, Development, and Deployment of Wind Energy Systems (IEA Wind) focuses on improving the value of renewable energy forecasts.
There are three distinct areas of challenge in forecasting wind power. The first area is in the continuing effort to improve the representation of physical processes in weather forecast models through both new high performance initializations and tailored parameterizations. The second area is the heterogeneity of the forecasters and end users, the full understanding of the uncertainties throughout the modelling chain and the incorporation of novel data into power forecasting algorithms. A third area is representation, communication, and use of these uncertainties to industry in forms that readily support decision-making in plant operations and electricity markets.
This Task will focus on facilitating communication and collaborations among international research groups engaged in the improvement of the accuracy and applicability of forecast models and their utility for the stakeholders in the wind industry, in the power sector and in the energy system.
This Task has the following specific objectives:
- To establish an active, open forum for sharing knowledge among the participants, related IEA Wind Tasks and other related TCPs through workshops, dissemination and communication measures
- To establish and communicate standards and frameworks for the operation and evaluation of forecast model performance
- To identify paths to increased application and utility of forecast information to the task stakeholders
- To advance the knowledge in the underlying atmospheric physics, in the mathematical models converting the transforming atmospheric quantities to energy system application variables, in the modelling of the uncertainty and in the applications and decision-making
- To identify most promising areas for new research to improve the quality and utility of forecasts
- To provide guidelines for the implementation of optimal forecasting solutions
Game Link for a probabilistic forecast decision-making task: Extreme Event Wind Power Trading in Complex Terrrain
An intiative by IEA Wind Task 36 and Task 51 and project WEXICOM at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Link to Game: https://arc-vlab.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/wind-power/experiment/index.html
Visit the IEA Wind Task 51 YouTube Channel
The Task members identified several issues which might be useful in an information portal for wind power forecasting. Those are:
- A list of meteorology masts with online data over 100m height, useful for verification of wind speed predictions
- A list of meteorological experiments going on currently or recently, either to participate or to verify a flow model against
- A list of publicly available wind power forecasting benchmarks, to test your model against
- A list of current or finished research projects in the field of wind power forecasting
- A list of future research issues
- A list of open weather data
For all of those, we would be happy to accept input, so head over to the site and see where you can help, or what you can use!
Please find the full text of the task description here.
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