Uncertainty is inherent in the forecasting of weather driven power generation. The preparation of calibrated uncertainty measures is done by the WP2 stakeholders. In WP3, the integration of forecast uncertainty into power grid management, wind power bidding strategies, and storage operation, will be analyzed considering the role of humans (and their perception of uncertainty and risk), costs and benefits of end-users. Since this is the research topic needing more attention, WP3 is responsible for this WS. Analysis of critical bottlenecks in forecasting accuracy, as well as validation and value determination, are topics that will be dealt with in interdisciplinary groups and collaborations with associated partners and other WPs. Additionally, a qualitative overview paper of the propagation of uncertainty through the modelling chain was submitted in mid-2021. A natural extension of the work is to use the techniques on real data, to calculate the results and to publish it as a new paper.

Here are the most important deliverables so far on uncertainty propagation in the modelling chain, using quantitative data:

Publication on uncovering uncertainty throughout the whole model chain:

Jie Yan, Corinna Möhrlen, Tuhfe Göçmen, Mark Kelly, Arne Wessel, and Gregor Giebel, Uncovering wind power forecasting uncertainty sources and their propagation through the whole modelling chain. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 165:112519,23, DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112519, 2022. +++ OpenAccess Article +++

Presentation on the evaluation platform to quantify the uncertainty throughout the whole model chain: 

Jie Yan, Yuhao Li: Wind power forecasting error evaluation and decoupling methods, Presentation in Mini-Symposium 1.12 Uncertainty Quantification, WESC 2025, 24th-27th June, 2025, Nantes, France. [Abstract] [Presentation]

Webinar on  Verification, Validation & Uncertainty Quantification

Watch webinar here