Uncertainty / probabilistic forecasting
|WS:||WP1 Weather||WP2 Power||WP3 Applications||Deliverable||#, Due||Collaboration|
|Uncertainty / probabilistic forecasting / decision making under uncertainty (WP3)||
|Uncertainty propagation paper with data
D 2.6 / M42
Uncertainty is inherent in the forecasting of weather driven power generation. The preparation of calibrated uncertainty measures is done by the WP2 stakeholders. In WP3, the integration of forecast uncertainty into power grid management, wind power bidding strategies, and storage operation, will be analyzed considering the role of humans (and their perception of uncertainty and risk), costs and benefits of end-users. Since this is the research topic needing more attention, WP3 is responsible for this WS. Analysis of critical bottlenecks in forecasting accuracy, as well as validation and value determination, are topics that will be dealt with in interdisciplinary groups and collaborations with associated partners and other WPs. Additionally, a qualitative overview paper of the propagation of uncertainty through the modelling chain was submitted in mid-2021. A natural extension of the work is to use the techniques on real data, to calculate the results and to publish it as a new paper.
D 2.6: Paper on uncertainty propagation in the modelling chain, using quantitative data (M42)
M 2.1: Version 3 of IEA Recom. Practice on Forecast Solution Selection (M36)