Seasonal Forecasting


Seasonal Forecasting

WS: WP1 Weather WP2 Power WP3 Applications Deliverable #, Due Collaboration
Seasonal forecasting (WP1) X Workshop / Paper D1.5 / M19 Hydro TCP, Hydrogen TCP, Biomass TCP

Seasonal forecasts are growing in importance for the power grid planning, especially, where hydropower, storage and other technologies are involved. This topic is also interlinked to the uncertainty forecasting work stream and will focus on the communication between weather and energy community. Seasonal forecasts are a subset of weather forecasting, and are therefore managed by WP1. WP3 will interlink these communities and serve as a platform to establish new applications for the use of seasonal forecasting in the energy community and the transformation into a carbon free energy system.

D 1.5: Convene workshop and develop paper on seasonal forecasting, emphasizing hydro and storage (summer 2023)

Discover the future of energy planning and forecasting in our workshop videos. Dive into the interplay between seasonal forecasts, power grid management, and the transition to carbon-free energy systems. Explore these crucial insights in our concise video series from our workshop in Reading, June 2023.


Day 1:

Gregor Giebel (DTU Wind, Operating Agent): Welcome, and Task 51 Overview

David Brayshaw (Univ Reading):  S2S FORECASTING AND ENERGY

Jie Yan (NCEPU): Challenges and key technology for S2S forecasting in China

Irene Schicker (Geosphere Austria):  Post-processing and high-resolution downscaling of subseasonal ensemble forecasts with focus on renewables using statistics and machine learning

Petrina Papazek (Geosphere Austria): Challenges in S2S post-processing: data pre-processing, methods, verification

Allison Campbell (PNNL):  Open-Source Wind Power Plant Database – U.S

Paula Gonzalez (Met Office):  Exploring the value of statistical post-processing of s2s predictions for energy applications

Jan Remund (IEA PVPS Task 16):  S2S in the Solar Community

Nathalie Voisin (IEA Hydro Annex IX):  Seasonal value of hydropower storage

Ye Liu (PNNL):  How do the weather regimes drive wind speed and power production at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over the CONUS?

Dave Turner (NOAA):  NOAA’s Subseasonal-to- Seasonal (S2S) Forecasting Overview

Kristina Fröhlich (DWD): Climate Forecasting Techniques at DWD


Day 2:

Andreas Paxian (DWD): Seasonal Forecast Products and User Interaction at DWD

Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF): Long-Range Predictions from the Copernicus Climate Change Service

Albert Soret (Barcelona Supercomputing Centre): Climate Services for Clean Energy

Nicky Stringer and Gillian Kay (Met Office): Met Office UK Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts - Exploiting Ensembles for Studying Wind Droughts in the North Sea

Jan Dutton (The World Climate Service): Benefits of Long-Range Forecast Calibration

Albert Bosch (Vortex FDC): Seasonal Wind Speed Anomaly Forecasts

Huan Zhang (Enercast): Statistical Downscaling for Seasonal Wind Power Forecasts - A Case Study in India

Alberto Troccoli (WEMC/ICS): Co-Production of Seasonal Forecasts for Energy Applications

David Lenaghan (National Grid ESO): Extreme but not extreme

Kim Bentzen (Danske Commodities): Seasonal and Sub-Seasonal Forecasting for Power Trading

John Zack (Meso Inc.): Introduction to the Open Space session

The results of the Open Space session

Gregor Giebel: Wrap up of the workshop