Extreme Power System Events

November 2025 Webinar Series

Webinar 4: Review of IEA Wind Task 51 workshops on Extremes in the Power System from 2022-2025

• Presentation Download
• YouTube Recording: @IEAWindForecasting

IEA Wind Task 51 Workshop on Forecasting for Extremes in the Power System

Venue: German Weather Service, DWD, Offenbach (near Frankfurt), Germany

Date: September 30 – October, 1, 2025

Workshop:

• Day 1: 9-18 — Workshop
• Day 2: 8-13 — Workshop

Agenda (updated last 11.09.2024): download here

Recordings: see at our YouTube channel @IEAWindForecasting here

Presentations:

Keynote Session
#1.1 Weather extremes in a weather-driven energy system (Vanessa Fundel and Frank Kaspar, DWD)
#1.2 Power challenges in grid operation (Martin Lørup Stensdal, Energinet)
#1.3 Challenges in the power market (Detlef Siebert, SETrade)

Defining Extremes
#2.1 Meteorological vs power system extremes: EPRI’s insights and overview of EPRI’s Risk Screening Tool (Caroline Draxl, EPRI)
#2.2 Weather regimes as a proxy for extremes in the power system (Christian M Grams, MeteoSwiss)
#2.3 Adverse Weather and RES – Event detection from the meteorological perspective: a multi-scale physics-informed approach (Irene Schicker,
Geosphere Austria)
#2.4 Estimating and forecasting high-resolution wind gust fields from sparse Mesonet observations (Maximilian Pierzyna, TU Delft, Uni Albany)
#2.5 Deep Convective Cold Pools: Potential Impacts on Wind Energy from Observations and Numerical Modelling (Gerard Kilroy, DLR)
#2.6 Warnings of exceptional contingencies of power lines due to weather phenomena (Gregor Pante, DWD)

Dunkelflaute Events
#3.1 Dunkelflaute and long-term electric energy shortage events in Europe (Yvonne Scholz, DLR)
#3.2 Seasonal forecasting of Dunkelflaute episodes in Western Europe (Alberto Caldas Alvarez, EDP Renewables, contact for info / see recording)
#3.4 Forecasting Flaute Across Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Timescales (Abhinav Tyagi, Fraunhofer IEE)
#3.4 Wind and solar energy droughts: Potential impacts on energy system dynamics and research needs (Jim Wilczak, NOAA Emeritus)

Security aspects in Extreme Situations
#4.1 Extreme event risk mitigation in short-term energy trading by operational meteorological assessment (Stephan Späth, ANE)
#4.2 Impact of extremes on forecast error and market bidding strategies (Mouhamet Diallo, ENGIE)
#4.3 From forecasts to decisions – do we need to care about AI safety? (Lukas Strauss, Austro Control Digital Services)
#4.4 Climate Resilience and Adaptation Initiative (READi) Power Framework (Caroline Draxl, EPRI)
#4.5 How to create a new weather resilience 2.0 for grid operators based on extreme weather events (Markus Schwab, Meteomatics)

OpenSpace Disucssion
Inspirational Talk 1: Show Case of Severe Extreme Weather Events hitting Grid Operators in Germany (Markus Schwab, Meteomatics)
Inspirational Talk 1: Experience from WMO Energy Program (Hamid Bastani (Energy Consultant for WMO ENANDES+)
OpenSpace Discussion Topics & Results “Extremes Definitions – Mitigation Strategies – Security Aspects”

Bonus Presentations

#B1.1 Seasonal forecasts of 100m wind and solar radiation for Germany (Jan Wandel, German Weather Service DWD)
#B1.2 Seamless climate information for enhancing energy system resilience in Spain (Albert Soret, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre)
#B1.3 Nowcasting solar ramp events for national power grids (Angela Meyer, TU Delft – contact Angela or see recording)
#B1.4 Advances in wind power ramp forecasting (Helena Hansen, ENFOR)

If you are interested in the workshop, but are not part of our mailing list, get in touch with us here

About the Workshop – Extreme weather conditions, such as heatwaves, severe storms, floods, and cold snaps, can significantly impact electricity grids and energy supply by disrupting power generation, transmission, and distribution systems. For example, intense heat can reduce the efficiency of power plants, while cold weather can freeze infrastructure like power lines and transformers, causing outages. Severe storms, including hurricanes or tornadoes, can damage essential grid components, leading to widespread disruptions. Additionally, extreme weather can spike electricity demand, further stressing the grid and potentially leading to power shortages or blackouts.

In this context, forecasting for such extremes and implementing effective mitigation strategies are critical for enabling system operators to prepare for these events well in advance. By improving weather prediction models, utilizing advanced analytics, and reinforcing grid infrastructure, operators can better anticipate extreme events and minimize their impact. Mitigation methods such as the development of more resilient infrastructure, smart grid technologies, and early warning systems can help ensure the grid’s reliability and sustainability during extreme weather events, addressing the challenges posed by increasing climate volatility.

The workshop will address these challenges from a weather forecasting perspective, from the power grid perspective and discuss cybersecurity aspects to prevent failures when dealing with artificial intelligence methods.

Main topics of the workshop:

• Definition and associated differences of extremes in meteorology and the power system
  • extremes in weather with relation to the power system
  • extremes in the power system and their weather dependency
  • combinations of non-extremes that additively form an extreme in the power system (e.g. Dunkelflaute)
• Forecasting tools to mitigate Extremes in the power system
  • Forecasting tools availability for different time horizons (near-real-time, day ahead, long-term/seasonal forecasting…)
  • Forecast types specific designed for extreme detection
  • Difference between a general forecast and an extreme forecast software tool
  • Decision-making in extremes
• AI and Cybersecurity in Extreme situations
  • Risks with AI algorithms related to Extremes in the power system
  • Benefits of AI tools in or when approaching Extremes
  • Uncertainty of Extremes
  • Decision-Making in Extremes – human factor, automatisation

Information from previous events:

IEA Wind Task 51 Austria Workshop, 11th November 2024

See Agenda and more information here

Task Overview presentation – Corinna Möhrlen

NAWEA WindTech 2024 side event: IEA Wind Task 51 Workshop  on Extremes in the Power Systems, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, 29th October 2024

Presentations:

Agenda
#1 IEA Rutgers Task51 overview – John Zack
#2 IEA Rutgers panel intro Julia Gottschall (Fraunhofer IWES), Caroline Draxl (EPRI), Justin Sharp (EPRI), Victoria Rojo (ISO-NE)
#3 IEA-Wind-TCP TEM111 Reanalysis
#4 NREL Workshop Bridging-the-gap Summary Caroline Draxl
#5 Weather and Climate Intelligence  Justin Sharp
#6 IEA User perspectives Victoria Rojo (ISO-NE):
#7 IEA Rutgers dataset questions
#8 IEA Rutgers openspace discussion
#9 Summary of Open Space discussion

Kick-off Meeting of the new Task 51 “Forecasting for the weather-driven Energy System”

Online 2/3. Feb. 2022

Introduction to the Workstream Extreme power system events by Corinna Möhrlen [Presentation]

State of the Art and Research Gaps in Forecasting for the Weather Driven Energy System

September 12/13 2022, University College Dublin

Presentations on Extreme Events (see all presentations in the Workstream tab “State-of-the-Art for Energy System Forecasting” or follow this link)

Session on Extreme event definition and forecasting: Not only the weather will get more extreme in future climate scenarios, the impacts on the power system also will get more extreme. But what is an extreme event for the power and energy system: extreme weather, or can “boring” weather with low wind and sun constitute problems too?  The session started with a short introduction, followed by an Open Space discussion and presentation of the results in plenum.

Extremes in UK National Grid ESO’s system by David Leneghan [Presentation]

Wind Euope Conference 2023

Copenhagen, 23.-25. April 2023

Corinna Möhrlen and Nadine Fleischhut, Extreme Event Decision-Making in a high-wind Energy System. [Poster]