Workshops & Special Sessions - 2024
2024
3rd DestinationEarth User-eXchange Workshop, Darmstadt, 16th-17th October 2024
Overview Poster for Task 51 Forecasting for the weather-driven Energy System
Wind & Solar integration Workshop, Helsinki, 8th – 11th October 2024
SESSION 4D – IEA WIND AND PVPS TASK 51 AND 16 > Session Chair John Zack (MESO, USA)
10:40 – 12:00 IEA Wind and PVPS Task 51 and 16: Review and Panel discussion on Forecasting and Data needs for the Weather
driven Energy System
• Overview of Task 51 activities by C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, DE/DK)
• Overview of Task 16 activities by K. P. Nielsen (Danish Meteorological Institute, DK)
• Review of the Seasonal and Minute-Scale Forecasting Workshops and Resulting Activities by J. Zack (Meso Inc., USA)
SESSION 9D – IEC SC8A – IEA FORECASTING STANDARD – Session Chair Corinna Möhrlen (WEPROG, DE/DK)
13:30 – 15:00 Let’s talk Standard for Forecasting and Evaluation of Wind and Solar in an Energy System with 100% Renewables
• Introduction to the IEC and IEA liaison for the Collaborative Development of a Standard for Renewables Forecasting and Forecast Evaluation by C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark)
• Overview of the IEC Sub-Comittee 8A on Grid Integration of Renewable Energy Generation by F. Martin (European Energy, DK)
• Overview of the IEC Sub-Comittee 8A Workgroup 2 on Renewable energy power prediction by Z. Wang (CEPRI, CN)
SESSION 5D: FORECASTING ASPECTS
Quality-Assessment of High-Resolution Weather Forecasts and Gap-Filling of Real-Time Measurements for Improved
Predictability in Extreme Events by C. Möhrlen, J. U. Jørgensen (WEPROG, Denmark), J. Arnqvist (University of Uppsala, Sweden)
IEA Minute-Scale Forecasting Workshop , DTU Wind Risø Campus, Roskilde, 10th -11th April, 2024
A collaborative workshop of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Wind Task 51 Forecasting for the weather-driven Energy System, IEA Wind Task 52 Lidars, IEA Wind Task 50, Hybrid Power Plants, IEA Wind Task 44 Wind Farm Flow Control and IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) Task 16 Solar Resource
01 Challenges and where we see the greatest benefit from accurate high-resolution forecasts
Martin Lørup Stensdal
02 Probabilistic solar forecasts as a binary event using sky camera — Methieu David
03 Minute-scale wind forecasting introduction — Elliot Simon
04 Spatio-temporal solar forecasting — Rodrigo Amaro e Silva
05 Benefit of an All Sky Imager Network for Satellite-Based Solar Irradiance Forecasts — Jorge Lezaca
06 Enhancing PV Forecasting through Sky Imaging and Irradiance Analysis — Andreas Boschert
07 High resolution solar irradiance forecasting using All Sky Imagers and machine learning — Nils Straub
08 Extreme wind and solar ramping events in All-Island of Ireland — Ndamulelo Mararakanye
09 On the benefits and challenges of high-resolution ensemble forecasts for minute-scale ramping applications — Corinna Möhrlen
10 Reducing power system imbalance forecast errors using short-term wind (and solar) power forecasts — Jon Olauson
11 Leveraging Generative Models for Enhanced Solar Irradiance Ramp Detection — Yann Fabel
12 Graph machine learning for short-term PV forecasting — Rafael Carrillo
13 Evaluation of the impact of local sensing data and feature extraction techniques on high frequency intra-hour irradiance forecasting — Erling W. Eriksen
14 Predicting surface solar irradiance from satellite imagery with deep learning radiative transfer emulation — Angela Meyer
15 Measuring the unpredictable — Robin Conseil
16 AI based weather prediction for wind power forecasting — Jie Yan
17 Prediction of ramp events using lidar-based minute-scale power forecast — Janna Kristina Seifert
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Workshops & Special Sessions - 2017 -- 2023
2023
22nd Wind & Solar Integration Workshop,Kng. Lyngby, Denmark, 26. – 28. September 2023
Corinn Möhrlen, John Zack, Gregor Giebel, IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Forecasting Solutions: hands-on examples for the use of the guideline. [Paper] and [Presentation]
Corinna Möhrlen, Johan Arnqvist, Jess Jørgensen, Pelle Hurtig, Sten-Ove Rodén, André Gräsman, Ebba Dellwik, EARS4WindEnergy – next level wind integration by listening to the wind. [Presentation]
7th International Conference Energy & Meteorology (ICEM): Towards climate-resilient energy systems, Padova, Italy, 27-29 Jun 2023
Giebel, G, Frank, H, Draxl, C, Zack, J, Browell, J, Möhrlen, C, Kariniotakis, G, Bessa, R & Lenaghan, D: IEA Wind Task 51 “Forecasting for the Weather Driven Energy System”.
Agenda for the workshop – Preseentations and videos of the workshop can be found under the Workstream “Seasonal Forecasting” or here
Wind Euopre, Copenhagen, 23.-25. April 2023
Corinna Möhrlen, John Zack and Gregor Giebel, 1st Renewable Energy Forecasting Industry Guideline: IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions. [Poster]
Corinna Möhrlen and Nadine Fleischhut, Extreme Event Decision-Making in a high-wind Energy System. [Poster]
General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 April 2023.
Gregor Giebel, Caroline Draxl, Helmut Frank, John Zack, Jethro Browell, Corinna Möhrlen, George Kariniotakis, Ricardo Bessa, David Lenaghan, IEA Wind Forecasting for the weather-driven Energy, .[Poster]
International RAVE Workshop 2023
Corinna Möhrlen, “IEA Wind Recommended Practice Measurement Control and ensemble based Analysis of Observation used in real-time Wind Energy Forecast Applications”,. [Presentation]
2022
21st International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, Den Haag, 12.-14. October 2022
SESSION 10A: IEA WIND TASK 51 – 11:20 – 13:45 | 12 October 2022
IEA Wind Task 51 Forecasting for the weather-driven Energy System – An Overview
J Zack, C. Möhrlen, G. Giebel, H. Frank, C. Draxl, J. Browell, G. Kariniotakis, R. J. Bessa, D. Leneghan [Paper] (pdf 320kb) [Presentation] (pdf 4.6 MB)
IEA Wind Task 51 Workhop “State of the Art and Research Gaps in Forecasting for the Weather Driven Energy System”
September 12/13 2022, University College Dublin
See agenda and presentations from the workshop here
Kick-off Meeting of the new Task 51 “Forecasting for the weather-driven Energy System”
Online 2/3. Feb. 2022
Introductory Presentation by Operating Agent Gregor Giebel
Paul Fleming, NREL: IEA Wind Task 44 Farm Flow Control
David Schlipf, HS Flensburg: IEA Wind Task 32 Lidar
Kristian Petrick, Airborne Wind Europe: IEA Wind Task 48 Airborne Wind Energy
Jennifer King, NREL, or Kaushik Das, DTU: IEA Wind Task 50 Hybrid Wind Power Plants
Jan Remund, Meteotest: IEA PVPS Task 16 Solar Resource for High Penetration and Large Scale Applications
Paulo Partidário, DGEG: The Hydrogen TCP and its connection to Task 51
Elina Mäki, VTT: IEA Bioenergy TCP, Task 44 Flexible Bioenergy and System Integration
Roberta Boscolo, WMO: The WMO Study Group on Integrated Energy Services (SG-ENE)
New Workstream Presentations
Atmospheric physics and modelling (WP1, Helmut Frank)
Airborne Wind Energy Systems (WP1, Helmut Frank)
Seasonal forecasting (WP1, Caroline Draxl and John Zack)
Uncertainty / probabilistic forecasting (WP3, Jie Yan or Corinna Möhrlen)
Decision making under uncertainty (WP3, Corinna Möhrlen)
Extreme power system events (WP3, Corinna Möhrlen)
Data science and artificial intelligence (WP3, Ricardo Bessa and George Kariniotakis)
Privacy, data markets and sharing (WP3, Ricardo Bessa)
Value of forecasting (WP3, Janos Hethey)
Forecasting for underserved areas (WP2, Jethro Browell)
Forecasting in the design phase (WP3, John Zack and Jethro Browell)
Minute scale forecasting (WP2, Tuhfe Göçmen)
American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Online, 26th Jan. 2022 1:30 PM – 1:45 PM EST
13th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
11.1 – Best Practices for the Selection of Optimal Forecast Solutions for Renewable Electricity Generation Applications (Core Science Keynote)
Dr. John W. Zack and Dr. Corinna Möhrlen
IEA Wind Task 36/51
Recommended Practice for Forecast Solution Selection Edition 2 [Presentation] (1.2MB)
Probabilistic Forecasting Games and Experiments Initiative [Presentation] (3.6MB)
2021
Wind Europe Electric City 2021, Copenhagen, 23.-25.11.2021
“How do Humans decide under Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty?”, Corinna Möhrlen, Ricardo Bessa, Gregor Giebel, Nadine Fleischhut
Session “Forecasting” on 25th Nov. 2021 11:45 – 12.30 Auditorium 15
[Poster] (Award Winner!) (2.5Mb) | [Presentation] (5.4MB) | OpenAccess [Paper]
20th International Workshop on Large-scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference Date: 29 – 30 September 2021 Location: Berlin, Germany
Games and other news from IEA wind task 36 forecasting for wind energy, G. Giebel ; W. Shaw ; H. Frank ; C. Draxl ; J. Zack; P. Pinson ; C. Möhrlen ; G. Kariniotakis; R. Bessa
[Paper] and [Presentation]
EMS 2021 – European Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
ES2.2 Dealing with Uncertainties
Conveners: Nadine Fleischhut, Vanessa Fundel, Jelmer Jeuring, Bruno Joly, Mark A. Liniger, Ken Mylne, Anders Doksæter Sivle
Lightning talks | Mon, 06 Sep, 14:00–15:30 (CEST), Tue, 07 Sep, 14:00–15:30 (CEST)
EMS2021-495: Communicating warnings for extreme events: use-case of a high-speed shutdown warning system for a system operator with high wind power penetration
Corinna Möhrlen, WEPROG, [Presentation](1.3Mb)
EMS2021-500 IEA Wind Task 36 “Probabilistic Forecasting Games and Experiments” Initiative
Corinna Möhrlen, Ricardo Bessa, and Gregor Giebel [Presentation](1.8Mb)
ESIG 2021 Meteorology & Market Design for Grid Services Workshop — ONLINE —
Session 3: Probabilistic Forecasting: State-of-Art and Use in Operations, Tuesday, June 8 — 3:00 – 5:00 p.m. (US-EDT)
Ensemble-Based Dynamic Ramping Reserve Forecasts: An Irish Case Study
Corinna Möhrlen, [Presentation] (1.5Mb) Video [this presentation]
Session 4: Global Advances in Forecasting, Thursday, June 10 — 3:00 – 4:30 p.m. (US-EDT)
IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting Recommendations
Gregor Giebel, DTU Wind Energy, Denmark, [Presentation] and Video [session]
Wind Energy Science Conference • 25 – 28 May 2021 • Hannover, Germany
Mini Symposium”Wind Power Forecasting” under Theme 1 Wind Resources, Wind farms and Wakes
ONLINE, 25.05.2021 13.40 – 15.20 CEST & 15.30 – 17.10 CEST
Insight into Human Decision-making from Probabilistic Forecast Games and Experiments: an IEA Wind Task 36 initiative, Corinna Möhrlen (WEPROG) and Nadine Fleischhut (MPI), Ricardo J. Bessa (INESCTEC)
[Presentation] (pdf 1.22MB)
2020
The 19th Wind Integration Workshop International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems was in the Corona year 2020 and held online from the 11th -12th of November. The IEA Wind Task 36 had a special session, introducing the task and providing an update and news on the projects within the task. The main contributions dealt with the validation of NWP model improvements, wind power forecasting data definitions and standards, a summary and provision of evaluation examples from the recommended practices guidelines on forecast solutions election, and a summary of the first experiment of the wind power forecasting experiment and games initiative. See publications in form of presentations and papers here.
19th Wind Integration Workshop International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems
ONLINE Workshop, 11 – 12 November 2020
SESSION 6A: IEA WIND TASK 36 – RAISING THE BAR ON INFORMATION TRANSPARENCY AND RECOMMENDED PRACTICES FOR WIND POWER FORECASTING
11:15 – 13:00 | 12 November 2020 | Session Chair: Gregor Giebel (DTU Wind Energy, Denmark)
IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting – An Overview
G. Giebel (DTU Wind Energy, Denmark), W. Shaw (PNNL, United States), H. Frank (Deutscher Wetterdienst DWD,
Germany), C. Draxl (NREL, United States), J. Zack (UL Services Group, United States), P. Pinson (DTU Elektro, Denmark), C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), G. Kariniotakis (Mines ParisTech, France), R. J. Bessa (INESC TEC, Portugal) (Submission-ID WIW20/128)
Paper / Presentation
Validation of Numerical Model Improvements through Public Data Sets and Code
C.Draxl, J. Lee (National Renewable Energy Laboratory –NREL, United States), W.Shaw, L. Berg (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, United States)
Presentation
Practical Application Examples from the Recommended Practices for Forecast Solution Selection
J. Zack (UL Services Group, United States), C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark) (Submission? ID WIW20?108)
Paper / Presentation
Wind Power Forecasting Data Definitions and Exchange Standards– An Approach for a Recommended Practice Built upon International Standards and an Eye Towards the Future
J. Lerner, M. Westenholz (ENFOR, Denmark) Submission‐IDWIW20‐126)
Paper / Presentation
Insight on Human Decision-making from Probabilistic Forecast Games and Experience: an IEA Wind Task 36 initiative
C. Möhrlen (WEPROG, Denmark), N. Fleischhut (Max-Planck Institute for Human Development, Germany), R. J. Bessa (INESC TEC, Portugal) (Submission-ID WIW20-98)
Paper / Presentation
IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting Special Session on the online ESIG Meteorology & Market Design for Grid Services Workshop, June 25, 2020
Please refer to the ESIG page on the workshop, where everything is online. You may need to scroll down to one of the last sessions.
IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting Workshop at Strathclyde University of Glasgow, January 21, 2020
Gregor Giebel (DTU)
Jethro Browell (Strathclyde)
Leveraging turbine-level data for improved forecast performance
John Zack (MESO inc)
IEA Wind Recommended Practice on Renewable Energy Forecast Solution Selection
David Lenaghan (National Grid ESO)
A Brief history of UK National Grids Forecasting Development
Tilman Koblitz (WindPoint)
Benefits of Probabilistic Forecasting in Power Trading
Corinna Möhrlen (WEPROG) and Nadine Fleischhut (MPI)
Corinna Möhrlen (WEPROG)
OpenSpace Discussion and Forecasting Game Analysis
Will Shaw (PNNL)
Panel: Bridging the gap between forecast innovation and business as usual (see YouTube channel at Minute: 6:30:45
2019
18th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plant, Dublin, Ireland, October 16.-18, 2019
G. Giebel, W. Shaw, H. Frank, C. Draxl, J. Zack, P. Pinson, C. Möhrlen, G. Kariniotakis, R. Bessa
IEA Wind Task 36: The New Phase for the Wind Power Forecasting Task
C. Möhrlen, U. Vestergaard (WEPROG), J. Ryan, K. Conway, S. Griffin (EIRGRID)
Probabilistic forecasting tools for high-wind penetration areas: an Irish case study
IEA Wind Task 36 OpenSpace Workshop 2019
Overview Presentation including the workshop results
IEA Wind Task 36 Session Topic 2: Meteorological Measurements and instrumentation standardization for integration into grid codes: what can we learn from the WMO?
IEA Wind Task 36 Session Topic 4: Recommended Practices on Forecast Solution Selection: which areas are not covered sufficiently?
ICEM 2019, DTU Campus, Lyngby, 26 June 2019
G. Giebel (2019)
IEA Wind Task 36 “Wind Energy Forecasting”, Open Space Workshop
John Zack, Corinna Mohrlen, Jeff Lerner , Jethro Browell, Jakob Messner, Caroline Draxl
Recommended Practices Guidelines for Forecast Solution Selection
2017
Wind Energy Science Conference, Lyngby, 26-29 June 2017
G. Giebel, J. Cline, H. Frank, W. Shaw, B-M. Hodge, P. Pinson, J. Messner, G. Kariniotakis, C. Draxl and C. Möhrlen (2017)
IEA Wind Task 36 OpenSpace Workshop
Overview Presentation including the workshop results
The UVIG Forecasting Workshop 2017, Atlanta (US), 21-22 June 2017
J. W. Zack (2017)
Wind and solar forecasting trials experience: do’s and don’ts, Part 2
C. Collier (2017)
Why Do Forecast Trials Often Fail to Answer the Questions for which End-Users Need Answers: A Forecaster’s Point of View
T. Maupin (2017)
Wind and Solar Forecasting Trials: Do’s and Don’ts, Part 1 Best practices
C. Möhrlen (2017)
Use of Probabilistic Forecasting Tools in Energy Trading
C. Möhrlen (2017)
Meteorological Data Collection: Results from Eirgrid’s Met Mast and Alternatives Study
C. Möhrlen (2017)
IEA Wind Task 36: Wind Energy Forecasting
C. Möhrlen (2017)
UVIG Forecasting Tutorial: Applying Meteorology in Power System Planning and Operations
C. Möhrlen, inputs from G. Nolan (2017)
Findings from the EIRGRID Met Mast and Alternatives Study, Session 1
C. Möhrlen (2017)
Applications and Value of Uncertainty Forecasts
AMS General Meeting 2017 in Seattle
Eighth Conference on Weather, Climate, Water and the New Energy Economy, part of the 97th American Meteorological Society General Meeting, Seattle (US), 23 – 26 January 2017
We had a special session (part 1, part 2) on the AMS General Meeting 2017 in Seattle, including an overview talk:
G. Giebel, J. Cline, H. Frank, W. Shaw, P. Pinson, B-M. Hodge, G. Kariniotakis, J. Madsen, and C. Möhrlen (2017)
IEA Wind Task 36 on Wind Power Forecasting and Future Research Issues
2016
15th Int. Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Farms, Vienna (AT), 15 – 17 November 2016.
C. Möhrlen, R.J. Bessa, M. Barthod, G. Goretti and M. Siefert (2016)
Use of Forecast Uncertainties in the Power Sector: State of the Art of Business Practices
TORQUE 2016: The Science of Making Torque from Wind Conference, München, 5-7 Oktober, 2016
G. Giebel, J. Cline, H. Frank, W. Shaw, P. Pinson, B-M. Hodge, G. Kariniotakis, J. Madsen, and C. Möhrlen (2016)
Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues
Journal of Physics: Conference Series 753 (2016) 032042, doi:10.1088/1742-6596/753/3/032042.
Paper-version / Presentation-version
IEA Wind Task 36 Workshop on State of the Art, Barcelona, 9 June 2016
On 9 June 2016, we held the workshop Experiences in using Wind Power Predictions
and Gaps in Forecasting Research in Barcelona.
We now have the slides online. The entire seminar can be watched on our YouTube channel. The main findings of the seminar are summarized in a paper we wrote for the conference “The Science of Making Torque from Wind” in Munich, 5-7 Okt. 2016.”