20 April 2021 Dennis Wettergren

Future wind energy costs will decline

Wind power deployment has expanded rapidly and wind energy is already among the lowest-cost means of electricity supply and energy-sector decarbonisation in many regions. Despite the already low costs, experts expect future onshore and offshore wind costs to decline 37–49% by 2050, resulting in costs 50% lower than predicted in 2015,  a new report shows. The work was conducted under the auspices of IEA Wind TCP Task 26 by a group of researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy and University of Massachusetts—Amherst.

The group sought insights on the possible magnitude of and drivers for cost reductions, anticipated technology trends, and grid-system value-enhancement measures.

In 2015, the group sent out a survey to experts working with onshore wind, fixed-bottom offshore wind or floating offshore wind; 163 people responded. In 2020, the group sent out a new survey to the same type of experts getting 140 responses. The responses show that wind energy has experienced accelerated cost reduction over the last five years, and that experts anticipate future onshore and offshore wind costs that are approximately 50% lower than predicted in 2015.

If the wind costs are realized, this will allow wind to play a more substantial role in global energy supply and energy-sector decarbonisation than previously anticipated.

Their result has been published in a Nature Energy Article. Find it here.